US GDP – Steady As She Goes

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As many people focus on U.S. GDP these days and how it needs to be higher, they seem to be missing something. While the level of recent U.S. GDP has trended lower than in the past, it has become much more stable and steady. While high GDP seems desirable, unsustainably high GDP tends to crash, creating a boom-bust cycle. One can argue that a steadier GDP, even at a somewhat lower level, without the bust … Read More

Hanlon Market Update – Filtering Out The
Short-Term Noise

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Last week, markets tumbled across the board, erasing 2018’s gains for most major global equity indices. Sharp downside market moves like last week’s serve as a reminder that the market will do whatever it needs/wants in the short run, oscillating around news du jour, recent news including trade wars, interest rates, Big Tech under the government microscope, government budgets, Trump tweets, etc. However, earnings and interest rates control the market’s long-term direction. We are long-term … Read More

Rational Thoughts On Rising Rates

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Some prominent fixed-income analysts have officially declared an end to the 30+ year bull market in bonds. The prices of bonds move inversely to the movement of interest rates, and it is obvious that yields on the 10-Year US Treasury Note have broken out of the long-term trend of lower highs with resistance now becoming support (blue line below). While we agree that there are powerful forces supporting higher rates, we wonder how much has … Read More

Volatility Returns Update – Finding Fair Value

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Read the rest of the series here: Volatility Returns – Exploring the Reasons and What Happens Next Volatility Returns Update – Markets Enter Correction Territory. The S&P 500 Index officially entered “correction” territory, defined as a 10% decline from the prior peak, on Thursday, February 8 when the index closed at 2,581, -10.16% below its January 29 all-time high of 2,873. Intraday, it fell as low as -12% below its all-time high. While the correction … Read More

Volatility Returns Update – Markets Enter Correction Territory

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Read the original article here – Volatility Returns – Exploring the Reasons and What Happens Next The S&P 500 index (Large Caps), S&P 400 index (Mid Caps), and the S&P 600 index (Small Caps) have all violated their 100 day moving averages, but look as if they may be finding support as they near their 200 day moving averages. A “tell” that the sell-off may be overdone is the high in the NYSE new lows … Read More

Volatility Returns
– Exploring the Reasons and What Happens Next

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January’s 5.73% gain in the S&P 500 was the index’s best start to a year since 1990. But February has suddenly ushered in the return of volatility, which has been virtually absent from equity markets for the past year. A dramatic and sudden two-day plunge put the S&P into negative territory for the year, erasing January’s gains. In this commentary, we will explore some reasons for the selloff and discuss where we think we will … Read More

2018 Outlook

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Introduction As the calendar changes to reflect the start of a new year, it’s time to look ahead for opportunities and dangers that may affect investing in 2018. Investors were rewarded in 2017 with solid returns across most asset classes, with an unprecedented level of low volatility. Things in 2017 were good enough to prompt questions over whether we have entered bubble territory, with the next economic collapse around the corner in 2018. These concerns … Read More

2017 Q4 Quarterly Report

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US Economic Commentary GDP growth for Q2 and Q3 were both at or above 3%, marking the first time this has occurred since Q1 of 2015. This economic strength is part of the rationale used by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to the 1.25%-1.50% range, which it announced after its meeting on December 13th. The Federal Reserve also continues to shrink its $4.5 trillion portfolio of … Read More