2018 Q1 Quarterly Report – 4th Quarter Review

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US Economic Commentary GDP growth for Q2 and Q3 were both at or above 3%, marking the first time this has occurred since Q1 of 2015. This economic strength is part of the rationale used by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to the 1.25%-1.50% range, which it announced after its meeting on December 13th. The Federal Reserve also continues to shrink its $4.5 trillion portfolio of … Read More

Seven Investment Considerations For 2018

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As we ring out the old year and welcome the incoming year it is natural for us to reflect, evaluate and establish considerations to be mindful of for 2018. Some may be expected, others might be a bit of a surprise. Here is my list of seven things I will be watching in the coming year of 2018, and how they may impact your portfolio. 1. Washington and elections – What is next after the tax reform? While it … Read More

Is The Fed Tilting The Yield Curve All By Itself?

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Notice anything about the below chart? Correct, you see that whenever the value derived by subtracting the interest rate of the US Treasury 10-year bond from the US Treasury 2-year note gets to or below zero, a US economic recession occurs. If you look to the far right, you can see that the trend for this value is headed towards that ill-fated condition. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wrapped up their December meeting on … Read More

2017 Q4 Quarterly Report – 3rd Quarter Review

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US Economic Commentary As we commenced the 3rd quarter, GDP for the 1st quarter had just been revised upward from 1.2% to a “still modest” 1.4% in the 3rd estimate. The Federal Reserve’s acknowledgment of this tepid pace of economic growth was apparent in Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s dovish comments on July 12th during the Fed’s mandated semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. Yellen indicated that the Fed may not need to hike rates much … Read More

High Yield Market Update

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The U.S. high yield bond market has grown substantially to around $1.3 trillion today. At the same time, the global high yield market has become more geographically diverse. North America’s share of the market has fallen from 87.1% in 2005 to 62.6% in 2016. Meanwhile, Europe’s share rose from 12.4% to 20.6%, and emerging markets’ share jumped from 0.5% to 16.8%. Because we see high yield as important component of a well-diversified portfolio, Hanlon Investment … Read More

2017 Q3 Quarterly Report – 2nd Quarter Review

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US Economic Commentary The 2nd quarter began in April with trepidation among investors as the U.S. stock market continued its advance in the face of modest real GDP growth, which on its third revision was increased to a 1.40% annualized growth rate for the first quarter compared to an initial reading of only 0.70% growth. Weakness in consumer spending has been a drag on growth and inconsistent with recent consumer confidence surveys which had indicated … Read More