Volatility Returns Update – Finding Fair Value

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Read the rest of the series here: Volatility Returns – Exploring the Reasons and What Happens Next Volatility Returns Update – Markets Enter Correction Territory. The S&P 500 Index officially entered “correction” territory, defined as a 10% decline from the prior peak, on Thursday, February 8 when the index closed at 2,581, -10.16% below its January 29 all-time high of 2,873. Intraday, it fell as low as -12% below its all-time high. While the correction … Read More

Volatility Returns Update – Markets Enter Correction Territory

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Read the original article here – Volatility Returns – Exploring the Reasons and What Happens Next The S&P 500 index (Large Caps), S&P 400 index (Mid Caps), and the S&P 600 index (Small Caps) have all violated their 100 day moving averages, but look as if they may be finding support as they near their 200 day moving averages. A “tell” that the sell-off may be overdone is the high in the NYSE new lows … Read More

Volatility Returns
– Exploring the Reasons and What Happens Next

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January’s 5.73% gain in the S&P 500 was the index’s best start to a year since 1990. But February has suddenly ushered in the return of volatility, which has been virtually absent from equity markets for the past year. A dramatic and sudden two-day plunge put the S&P into negative territory for the year, erasing January’s gains. In this commentary, we will explore some reasons for the selloff and discuss where we think we will … Read More

2018 Outlook

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Introduction As the calendar changes to reflect the start of a new year, it’s time to look ahead for opportunities and dangers that may affect investing in 2018. Investors were rewarded in 2017 with solid returns across most asset classes, with an unprecedented level of low volatility. Things in 2017 were good enough to prompt questions over whether we have entered bubble territory, with the next economic collapse around the corner in 2018. These concerns … Read More

2018 Q1 Quarterly Report – 4th Quarter Review

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US Economic Commentary GDP growth for Q2 and Q3 were both at or above 3%, marking the first time this has occurred since Q1 of 2015. This economic strength is part of the rationale used by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to the 1.25%-1.50% range, which it announced after its meeting on December 13th. The Federal Reserve also continues to shrink its $4.5 trillion portfolio of … Read More

Seven Investment Considerations For 2018

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As we ring out the old year and welcome the incoming year it is natural for us to reflect, evaluate and establish considerations to be mindful of for 2018. Some may be expected, others might be a bit of a surprise. Here is my list of seven things I will be watching in the coming year of 2018, and how they may impact your portfolio. 1. Washington and elections – What is next after the tax reform? While it … Read More

Is The Fed Tilting The Yield Curve All By Itself?

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Notice anything about the below chart? Correct, you see that whenever the value derived by subtracting the interest rate of the US Treasury 10-year bond from the US Treasury 2-year note gets to or below zero, a US economic recession occurs. If you look to the far right, you can see that the trend for this value is headed towards that ill-fated condition. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wrapped up their December meeting on … Read More