Commentary on Recent Market Volatility

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Selling activity in global equity markets has accelerated over the last three trading days, in a chain of events that commenced with last week’s Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC). The Fed delivered an expected quarter-point rate cut, but investors found Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments about the cut to be bearish. Powell described the rate cut as a “mid-cycle adjustment”, rather than the beginning of a sustained easing cycle. This seemingly hawkish characterization cast … Read More

2019 Mid-Year Update

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Introduction Halfway through 2019, global financial markets have teetered between euphoria and panic as global growth forecasts have been held captive by the seemingly unending trade war. Investors are getting a first-hand look at President Trump’s aggressive negotiating style, but he has found a formidable opponent in his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. At the onset of the trade dispute, consensus opinion was that the US had the high ground due to its position as a … Read More

The Small Investor’s [Only] Advantage

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Dr. George Calhoun, professor of quantitative finance at Stevens Institute of Technology and the Executive Director of the Hanlon Financial Systems Center at Stevens, penned the below article. As a member of the Research Advisory Board at Hanlon Investment Management, Dr. Calhoun works in conjunction with Hanlon on investment research. The Small Investor’s [Only] Advantage provides an analysis of the advantage small investors have over large institutional investors, a very thoughtful and compelling point of view.

Taking The Long View

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Market volatility has been extraordinarily high over the last several months. That caused investors to be jittery and worried about their investment portfolios. Fortunately, as we have entered the new year, markets have rallied strongly from the lows and lowered investor concerns. The late 2018 stock market pullback illustrates that in the heat of the moment investors may lose sight of the long-term view. Understanding long-term trends and performance helps investors to not forget the … Read More

2019 Outlook

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Introduction Hanlon Investment Management has its roots in Tactical portfolio management, which entails identifying and capitalizing on short to intermediate term price trends in a variety of asset classes. As our firm has evolved over the years, we have listened to our clients and developed additional portfolio solutions to meet their diverse needs. These models are our Hanlon Strategic Models (Strategic refers to longer term, buy-and-hold portfolios) and our Hanlon All-Weather Models (which we classify … Read More

The Market Is Sensing A US-China Trade Deal

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Back in October, we wrote an Asset Management piece highlighting the relative strength of the Mexico and Canada Index ETFs as those two countries were on the cusp of negotiating a trade deal with the U.S. The markets knew it before it happened, and investors bought into those two foreign stock ETFs in advance of the announcement. They rallied nicely. Today, the China trade deal is getting lots of media print and investors’ mind share. … Read More

S&P 500 3rd Quarter Earnings Update

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October was a stormy down month. November, despite ending up 2%, was a rollercoaster-like month and December is shaping up to be another volatile month. Investor confidence has been shaken. Now would be a good time to look at fundamentals that underpin the market and it doesn’t get any more basic than earnings. At the end of the day, earnings and earnings projections are an integral part of what drive market returns – the price … Read More

Market Corrections Are Expected

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I started my career in serving individuals and entities and their investment needs in November 1982, so 36 years in, I can reflect on this October’s volatility as just another one of these kind of crazy, yet to-be-expected episodes where the equity markets, or some other market(s), create considerable stress for many investors. While US and International equity returns are very attractive over the long term, we often forget that there will be periods of … Read More

S&P 500 Earnings Update and Trade Resolution

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Recent volatility in equity markets has been attributed to rising interest rates and concerns that U.S. equities will be unable to maintain what has been historically strong earnings growth. U.S. equities have sharply outperformed their international peers year-to-date, and much of that outperformance stems directly from strong earnings numbers, which have been bolstered by a robust U.S. economy and the effects of corporate tax cuts. At the end of the day, earnings and earnings projections … Read More

US High Yield Bonds Serving An Unusual Role

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For fixed income investors, 2018 has been a bit of a rocky road. While the S&P 500 is up 10.3% year-to-date, the fixed income landscape has had its share of difficulties. U.S. high yield has managed to quietly miss much of the pain that has hit Emerging Market Bonds, as well as higher quality U.S. corporate bonds and U.S. treasuries. U.S. high yield, as represented by the iShares iBoxx High-Yield ETF (HYG), is up +2.09% … Read More